About Renan Santos

It is clear that Renan Santos is the best-prepared candidate in the 2026 Brazilian elections, just as Ciro Gomes was in the previous two elections. The two share several traits: they are highly intelligent, present more concrete proposals, and—to varying degrees—represent a break from traditional politics. Unfortunately, Ciro Gomes was—and remains—too much of a leftist to demonstrate a freer, more sensible way of thinking without constantly paying homage to the cult of Marxism or even "modern" wokeism. Furthermore, he always cast himself as the "eternal best candidate," using language far too convoluted for the average Brazilian—or even for those with a more advanced grasp of complex texts and speech. The result? He swam all the way to shore only to drown right at the water's edge—twice. He ultimately proved more disappointing than he was promising as a rare, truly intelligent progressive politician with great proposals who was simply misunderstood.

Renan Santos is dangerously heading down the same dead-end path Ciro Gomes walked.

He got off on the wrong foot by opposing the end of the 6x1 work schedule. It is impossible to estimate just how many potential voters he lost—the damage could be significant. He looks more and more like a "right-wing Ciro," not just due to cognitive and psychological similarities, but also because he risks following the same trajectory: hope turning into disappointment. A major point in Renan's favor, however, is that—despite his high intelligence—he uses much more accessible language; he speaks not like an affected intellectual, but like a practical man.

Hopefully, he can rise above his current 10% standing to beat his right-wing rival—the ridiculous Flávio Bolsonaro—and make it to the runoff. It happened in Colombia. Every now and then, a political outsider manages to break through that barrier. The biggest current example is Donald Trump. The hardest part, of course, is for an outsider to survive within the system after winning the presidency. Yet, at this stage of the game—on the eve of the election season—an equally Herculean task for Renan will be breaking out of his "high-IQ" right-wing and non-leftist bubble to reach the average Brazilian right-winger, who remains deeply devoted to... Bolsonarism. Bolsonaro is all but finished. His children were never capable of even maintaining the same level of cheap yet effective populism that he adopted—and exploited—while an active politician and president... but there’s no harm in dreaming. It could happen here, too. Yet I also know that if Renan succeeds in these two feats, we will have to brace for one of two outcomes: either a civil war erupting more openly, or—much like in El Salvador—the emergence of a “$avior” figure like Bukele to douse the flames of chaos ignited by organized crime infiltration and official complicity...